Agreement about Russian oil sanctions only reached by EU leaders after Orbàn names his price

The special European Council got underway with considerable doubt that attempts by EU ambassadors to find a compromise on Russian oil sanctions had worked. It was feared that at best the details of a vague agreement on a temporary exemption for oil delivered by pipeline will have to be decided after the EU’s political leaders have left Brussels.

“It won’t be solved in the next 48 hours”, said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as she arrived at the summit. “It’s never easy, we’re not there yet”, she added, expressing the hope that a solution would be found in the next few days. She said all the issues had been solved except for crude oil delivered by pipeline.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbàn didn’t sound optimistic. “I don’t know about an agreement”, he said, “we are in a very difficult position”. He squarely blamed the Commission, saying it had been irresponsible to go further and faster than had been agreed when EU leaders met in Versailles.

He said solutions should come before sanctions. The first five packages of sanctions against Russia had been done the other way round but this time the economic consequences were just too serious for that. Although an exemption for pipeline oil was good for Hungary, the Prime Minister said it was not enough.

The Druzhba pipeline on which Hungary depends crosses Ukrainian territory and there’s been some thinking aloud in Kyiv about how vulnerable it is. Viktor Orbàn was now demanding a guarantee that if there is an ‘accident’ that blocks or severs the pipeline, Hungary will be able to access Russian oil by a different route.

The devil will be in the detail of what is finally announced in the European Council’s conclusions. The oil sanctions, when implemented, will halt the majority of imports. Estimates rage suspiciously widely from two-thirds to 90%. The exception is pipeline oil, which will continue to flow -for now.

We won’t really know about substitute imports unless the Druzhba pipeline is actually shut.

The last text that the leaders considered -and might have tweaked further- said only that “in the case of sudden interruptions of supply, emergency measures will be introduced to ensure the security of supply”. It also offered this concession to those who felt the compromise with Hungary had gone too far: “the European Council will revert to the issue of the temporary exception of crude oil delivered by pipeline as soon as possible”.

Viktor Orbàn may have found sympathy for his country’s difficulties in short supply. Latvia’s Prime Minister, Krišjanis Karinš said he didn’t have ‘sympathetic ears’ for people who say it’s tough for their country. “It’s tough for Latvia”, he said, describing the cost of ending dependence on Russian gas, at a time when Latvia’s ports and railways had seen a dramatic drop in traffic as a result of isolating Russia.

Lithuania’s President, Gitanas Nausėda, spoke of the shame he felt -and thought other leaders should feel- that the sanctions package had been delayed. On another issue that the Council will try to address, the food shortages affecting Africa because Ukraine cannot export its grain, he said a test shipment by rail to the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda had succeeded. It had already been agreed that the symbolic but still divisive issue of whether to grant Ukraine the status of a candidate for EU membership will be left until the June meeting of the European Council.

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Agreement about Russian oil sanctions only reached by EU leaders after Orbàn names his price

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