A deal struck to maintain and upgrade Pakistan’s warplanes has prompted speculation the US military may have secured airspace access in return. Both sides share a common enemy in Afghanistan-based terror groups. But some analysts see China as part of the reason for the F-16 deal as well.

For the first time since the United States cancelled military aid to Pakistan in 2018, Washington this month approved a US$450 million package to maintain and upgrade the South Asian nation’s fleet of F-16 fighter jets, hinting at a thaw in bilateral ties that had turned decidedly frosty of late.

The deal announced on September 9 followed a flurry of diplomatic activity, prompting speculation that in return for agreeing to keep Pakistan’s warplanes airborne for the next five years, the US military covertly secured access to the country’s airspace to carry out counterterrorism operations.

Though Islamabad has repeatedly denied any such conspiracy, the assassination in late July of al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul is widely believed to have been carried out by a US drone that traversed Pakistani airspace en route to its target.

And this month’s F-16 deal, described by one analyst as “a bit of a head scratcher”, has only served to raise eyebrows further.
India, a key US ally and Pakistan’s arch-rival, has already expressed its annoyance at the deal, and analysts have also questioned why Washington would choose to better equip a steadfast China ally when tensions between the world’s two largest economies are at their highest in decades.

“This being a transactional relationship, one certainly can’t rule out a quid pro quo involving the [F-16 deal] and the use of Pakistani airspace,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia programme at the Wilson Centre, a Washington-based think tank.

Is Pakistan helping the US carry out drone strikes?

US-Pakistan ties took a nosedive under the tenure of former President Donald Trump, whose administration cancelled US$300 million in military aid to Pakistan in 2018 and went on to accuse Islamabad of not only failing to take decisive action against militants, but providing a safe haven for insurgents fighting in Afghanistan and disputed Kashmir.

Pakistan denied the charges, and ties remained turbulent for the rest of former prime minister Imran Khan’s time in power. But Khan was ousted earlier this year and US President Joe Biden’s administration has since upped its diplomatic outreach with both Pakistan’s powerful military and its new coalition government, which assumed office in April.

Since al-Zawahiri’s assassination, more US drones have been spotted over Afghanistan seeking out militants – operations that Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said are likely only made possible because Pakistan “is assisting the US in some respect”.

“It’s hard to pinpoint the precise nature of that help. But it goes without saying that without some form of Pakistani assistance, the US drone strikes in Afghanistan are hard to pull off,” he said.

A ranking Pakistani official dismissed such claims, telling This Week In Asia “the assertion that US drones are operating through Pakistan is baseless and frivolous”.

The official, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter, did however point out that the Taliban had earlier vowed it would not allow Afghanistan to be used as a base for planning and carrying out attacks on other countries following the US-led withdrawal of foreign forces in August last year. That promise has not been kept.

Islamabad is particularly concerned about Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, which aims to overthrow the country’s government and is an affiliate of the fundamentalist group that’s back calling the shots in Kabul. 

A fragile ceasefire established with the militants in June has worn thin since al-Zawahiri’s assassination, with the TTP claiming responsibility for a wave of cross-border terrorist attacks in northwest Pakistan since August 7, when three of the group’s hardline leaders were killed in an unclaimed roadside bombing.

Security analyst Faran Jeffrey, deputy director of the Britain-based Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism think tank, said the fear of direct retaliation made working with the US “Pakistan’s best chance against the TTP now, if it wants to hit the TTP within Afghanistan”, as the group “won’t be able to react against the US since there’s no US target present in Afghanistan to hit back at”.

‘This sale is a bit of a head scratcher’

A procession of senior US officials and a Congressional delegation have visited Pakistan this month to discuss defence cooperation, including the F-16 deal, as well as humanitarian assistance in the wake of the country’s devastating floods.

The Wilson Centre’s Kugelman said this had come as a surprise for Washington’s opponents and allies alike – particularly New Delhi, whose defence minister said he had “conveyed India’s concern” about the deal to his US counterpart on September 14 in what was otherwise a “warm and productive” phone call.

“This sale is a bit of a head scratcher,” Kugelman said. “It won’t please India, and it seems odd to be giving this military support to a key ally of China at a moment when US-China competition has reached a fever pitch.”

But for Basit, the Singapore-based researcher, China may have indirectly been part of the reason Washington decided to go ahead with the F-16 deal in the first place.

“China’s reluctance to sell high-end military hardware to Pakistan represented an opportunity for the US which the latter has exploited by giving something in return for counterterrorism cooperation in Afghanistan,” he said.

While the deal is a one-off and unlikely to shift the needle much in terms of Washington’s regional alliances, Kugelman said “it does serve as a reminder of an oft-overlooked fact”: that Pakistan has maintained a largely uninterrupted military alliance with the US since it gained independence 75 years ago.

The Islamabad official agreed, describing the deal as merely an example of the US’ “follow-on support to Pakistan” – wherein Washington provides technical support for F-16s and other equipment the South Asian nation buys with its own funds – which he said “has never stopped”, even with 2018’s cancellation of military aid.

Kugelman said the US would “certainly prefer that Pakistan not be so reliant on Chinese military hardware”, such as the J10-C fighter jets and Type 054A/P frigates acquired in recent months. But it also recognises that China’s support could “ramp up as the US and India scale up their own military cooperation”.

“Let’s be clear: a sole US deal with Pakistan can only do so much,” he said. “It’s a drop in the bucket, given what China has the capacity to provide.”

The Pakistani official said defence purchases from China were of “no relevance” to the F-16 deal.

“Being a sovereign nation in a rough neighbourhood, Pakistan has the right to purchase defence equipment that meets its requirements and provides a deterrence against maleficent designs,” he said.scp

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