Analysts expect Britain to follow US lead on China policy, despite leadership change. Amid economic challenges at home and strained China relations, Truss will have her work cut out for her, experts say.

Relations between Beijing and London are unlikely to improve under Britain’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, who may closely follow Washington’s China strategy, Chinese analysts say.

Zha Daojiong, an international studies professor at Peking University, said Truss was known for harsh rhetoric on China and would have to live up to her hawkish track record when dealing with China, adding that she would have her work cut out for her since the countries’ overall ties hardly improved under outgoing leader Boris Johnson.

Zha said economic ties between Britain and China had already been strained, and more importantly the UK had to address economic challenges that were spreading across continental Europe as well.

“It is not easy to forecast how much further the Truss government can see the downward spiral of its China relations.”

Renmin University international studies professor Wang Yiwei agreed.
“Can the British find the balance [in its mindset] toward China in the future? Possibly not in Truss’ term but [it’s] possible in the next few years,” Wang said.

He added that Britain would most likely follow the United States to try to be the “rule maker” of the Indo-Pacific region, where it has been seeking an increased presence, an approach that has unnerved Beijing over the past two years.

Last year, Britain joined the US and Australia in the Aukus deal, helping Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines to counter China’s military presence in the region.

Wang said Britain had seen China’s digital transformation as a threat to its interests and would have to find a balance in the next few years in its relations with Beijing. That balance was “not very likely” to be achieved under Truss’ government, he added.

Truss will succeed Johnson as the next British prime minister after winning more votes from the 200,000-member Conservative Party than competitor and former treasury chief Rishi Sunak on Monday evening.

Both Truss and Sunak pledged tough China policies during the campaign, with Truss outlining China as a “threat” to Britain’s national security and vowing to contain its rise.

“By talking about the rise of China as inevitable, we are doing China’s work for it. In fact, their rise isn’t inevitable. They will not continue to rise if they don’t play by the rules,” Truss said in a speech in April.

The Chinese foreign ministry later called the “threat theory” voiced by Truss “irresponsible talk”.

Britain and China have clashed on several issues in recent years including human rights and democracy, despite their close trade links. London has often criticised Beijing on Uygur issues in Xinjiang and democratic freedoms in its former colony Hong Kong.

Britain is also among several other Western countries that have been pushing for the release of the Xinjiang report from the United Nations Human Rights Office that looked into allegations of “human rights violations” by China. 

Following its release last week, Truss, as foreign secretary, said the country would continue pressing China to “end its appalling human rights violations in Xinjiang” – allegations Beijing rejects.

Relations are further complicated by ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. 

The UK summoned Chinese ambassador Zheng Zeguang last month over the People’s Liberation Army’s actions around the island following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. 

And following the leads of regional allies the US and Japan, the UK is sending a parliamentary delegation to Taiwan later this year.

“Is Truss going to act like Biden and keep some studied distance from such gestures or is she going to find it politically profitable to give moral support? That bears watching, too,” Zha from Peking University said.

Einar Tangen, senior fellow at Taihe Institute, a Beijing-based think tank, said China would expect a lot of “sound and fury” from the UK under Truss, but it would have little significance.

“Expect strong statements about putting the EU in its place, confronting Russia and making China obey, some movements of warships and eventually a change in governments, that will relegate her to the same circular file of history her pervious guru Boris Johnson will occupy,” he said.

China is one of Britain’s biggest trading partners, accounting for 7.3 per cent of its total trade in 2021, according to the UK Office for National Statistics. In 2015, the government of former prime minister David Cameron declared a “golden era” by strengthening investment ties with Beijing.sc

end item*